The UN’s latest update on global population projections ‘World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables’ has just been released. It is a highly readable document, comprehensive and instructive on the likely pace of the planet’s population at the country and regional level. For this week’s newsletter, we will highlight some points of particular interest.
Big Numbers But A Percentage Slowdown in Growth
Globally the population grew by 1 billion to 7.3 billion over the last 12 years to mid 2015; it will take us another 15 years to reach the next billion. The table below shows regional forecasts based on the medium variant projections (as opposed to the high or low options), which make a number of assumptions on fertility (declining in African countries) and longevity (survival prospects at birth and living longer). Yet like a slowing supertanker, a considerable lag means it will take a long time – decades even, for many adjustments to take effect. Perhaps just as well, many of the impacts will be nothing short of breathtaking.
Fertility in Africa Twice the Level of Anywhere Else
Half of the world’s population growth up to 2050 will take place in Africa. The continent has the world’s highest fertility of 4.7 children per woman. It is falling, like everywhere else in the world, but it is still twice the level experienced anywhere else (2.2 in Asia, 1.6 in Europe, 1.9 in the US). It means that Africa’s share of the global population this century will increase from 16% in mid-2015 to 25% by 2050 and 39% by 2100. Asia’s weighting will contract from 60% in 2015 to 54% in 2050 and 44% by 2100. Nigeria will displace the US as the world’s third most populous country by 2050.
India Will Overtake China
Both these countries will remain the world’s most populous. There currently isn’t much to separate them – China comprises 19% of the global population with 1.4 billion people and India has 1.3 billion, 18%. By 2022 their populations are both expected to be 1.4 billion. China has hit peak population and it will start falling by the 2030s, while India’s population is forecast to continue to rise to 1.7 billion by 2050.
Living a Lot Longer
And everybody benefits. Global life expectancy has risen by three years in the five years to 2005, as well as in the five years to 2015 and now stands at 70 years. Current life expectancy across Africa is the world’s shortest at 60 years and contrasts with an equivalent 72 across Asia, 77 in Europe and 79 in North America. By 2014-2050, global life expectancy will increase to 77 years and increase to 83 years by 2095-2100. In the US and Europe, life expectancy will rise by a further 10-11 years by the end of the century, suggesting an average lifespan of 87-88 in Europe and 89-90 in the US.
Smaller Families
A like for like replacement in population numbers requires a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman. Yet the populations in 48 countries accounting for 46% of the world’s population (including all of Europe and North America, China, Russia and Japan) have replacement rates below this threshold, which means that in absolute terms their populations will fall. The rest of the world is split between ‘intermediate fertility’ countries that have already undergone substantial fertility reductions, but where women still have 2.1 – 5 children each and the much smaller number of countries, 21 in total, where women have five or more children over their lifetime. 19 of these high fertility countries are in Africa, with the largest including Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo and Tanzania.
Fastest Growing Age Group – The Over 60s
This is the inevitable outcome of declining fertility and rising life expectancy. 12% of the global population is aged 60 or over; Europe has the highest proportion, 24% of its total population but by 2050 all major areas of the world with the exception of Africa will have nearly 25% or more of their populations aged 60 or over. Between 2015 and 2100 the number of over-60s worldwide is forecast to rise from 901 billion to 3.2 billion.
…With Profound Financial Consequences for Us All?
A higher proportion of retirees relative to other segments will have an impact on the Potential Support Ratio (PSR), which is the number of people aged 20-64 divided by the number aged 65 and over. Europe and North America have PSRs of 4 or under and Japan has the world’s lowest PSR at 2.1. By 2050, 24 countries across Europe will have PSRs of below 2 and this will place unimaginable pressure on the health and social security safety nets currently in place. Compulsory financial contributions from those in work will not be able to keep pace with the accelerating number of retirees. The implications are painful, explosively so, but the process underway is a slow burn which discourages many current governments from attempting to deal with the problem, compounding the effects for those in later decades.