GDP – Primal Group

Pension Funding Gap Set to Overtake Global GDP

The World Economic Forum has calculated that pension systems across the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, the Netherlands, Canada and Australia will have a joint shortfall of $224 trillion by 2050. If you add China and India to the equation, the combined gap nearly doubles to $400 trillion. That’s five times the size of the current global economic output. Such a shortfall places severe risks on the incomes and quality of life of future generations while setting the industrialized world up for one of the most widespread pension crises in history.

The Global Pension Crisis

Source: Mercer (2017)

Funding this shortfall will not be easy with global debt levels rising to more than 325% of GDP in 2017, reaching an eye-watering $217 trillion.…

Signs of Recovery for Global Commodity Markets

Although global commodity markets have been under stress for some time, investors are beginning to look at recent developments more opportunistically. According to the World Bank, prices for most commodities strengthened in the first quarter of 2017. Crude oil is expected to rise to an average of $55 per barrel (bbl) in 2017 from $43/bbl in 2016. Metal prices are projected to increase by 16% as a result of stronger demand in China and agricultural commodity prices are beginning to show early signs of recovery and growth. So why the positive forecasts when diversified commodity indices are down 5% so far this year?…

A New Era for Global Financial Markets

Global financial markets have started the New Year on a surprisingly strong footing, with the Dow Jones, FTSE and US$ all outperforming expectations and achieving record-highs. Why the unprecedented optimism so early on in the year? Investors are expecting significant change for global financial markets, characterized by the profound shifts taking place in monetary and government policy worldwide.

After an Impressive 2016, Where Will Markets Move?

Source: Bloomberg News (2016)

Investors should brace for few certainties, several headwinds and many opportunities in the New Year. Donald Trump will see his first days as President of the United States, the British government will begin proceedings to leave the European Union, there is risk of a supply war over the world’s most important commodity, oil, and interest rates are likely to rise around the world.…